The Undecided: How Long Will Sarah Palin Keep Us in Suspense?

The Undecided: How Long Will Sarah Palin Keep Us in Suspense?
by Tony Lee
08/22/2011

Sarah Palin​ has said she will make a decision on whether to run for President before October. Until the former Alaska governor formally reveals her intentions, her actions and words will be viewed differently by those inclined to think she is running and those who think she is a drama queen, a mere Tea Party tease, determined to keep herself in the spotlight to assure future income and remain relevant in the national conversation.

Just as blacks and whites viewed the aftermath of events such as Hurricane Katrina and the controversies surrounding people such as O.J. Simpson and Barry Bonds​ through completely different prisms, Palin’s actions and words serve as a political Rorschach test that is interpreted alternatively by her supporters and detractors.

Palin’s public statements and actions, if taken at face value, though, reveal a person who has called for a candidate to “shake things up,” but who is herself wavering on that “earth-shattering” decision.

Signaling a Run

In April, Palin went to Wisconsin, into the eye of the storm during a heated battle between Gov. Scott Walker and Wisconsin’s public employee unions, and faced down unions on the Left in a combative speech in which she told President Obama,“Game On!” Palin’s supporters viewed this event as the curtain-raiser of a Palin 2012 presidential campaign. Palin’s detractors viewed it as a moment in which a diva starved for attention was selfishly putting the spotlight on herself.

In June, the first leg of her “One Nation” bus tour ended in New Hampshire, conveniently on the day Mitt Romney​ was kicking off his campaign in the Granite State. The next day, Palin was on the front page of the local newspapers while Romney was relegated to the back pages. Her supporters saw this as a candidate-in-training who was playing political hardball. Her detractors saw this as a petulant move by a politician whom they accused of breaking a sacred, unwritten rule that each candidate should have a day to himself in the spotlight when he announces.

In late June, during the week of Michele Bachmann’s announcement in Iowa, Palin went to Pella, Iowa, where a documentary about her record of reform in Alaska, The Undefeated, premiered. In footage later released from that event, Palin seemed to give a fiery stump speech laced with anti-Obama rhetoric and one that embraced themes of American exceptionalism. This speech led her supporters to believe she was gearing up for a presidential run. Her detractors, however, accused her of being jealous that another woman (Bachmann) was stealing her thunder, and insisted it was merely a catty move to grab the spotlight back from Bachmann.

And two weeks ago during the Ames Straw Poll, which is the unofficial-official kickoff to the presidential nominating season, Palin began the second leg of her bus tour by showing up at the Iowa State Fair. She answered questions from reporters for more than an hour, gave multiple one-on-one interviews to mainstream media outlets, mingled with Iowans by signing their T-shirts and shaking their hands. Palin came across to many as a candidate who was prepared for and anticipated questions she would be asked by reporters in a way that enabled her to respond rapidly and on point on subjects ranging from Michele Bachmann to Obama’s economic policies. Later, appearing on Fox News’ “Hannity,” Palin treated the interview as if she were on a soapbox, and her answers seemed like lines that were being field-tested to be included in a future stump speech. After her appearance on his show, Hannity said for the first time that he felt Palin was going to run.

A 'Very Grassroots' Campaign

Asked what a potential Palin campaign would look like, Palin, according to Real Clear Politics, said, "Each campaign that I’ve ever run in these 20 years of elected office has been kind of unconventional. … We’ve always been outspent two to one, 10 to one, five to one. Never won any polls heading into election night, but usually won the election.”

Palin continued: “So it would be unconventional and very grassroots. Very grassroots. And I wouldn’t be out there looking for hires out of that political bubble that seem to result in the same old ideas, the same old talking points, the things that Americans get so sick and tired of hearing and kind of suffering through.”

In another interview at the Iowa State Fair, though, Palin told the Christian Broadcasting Network, “We’re still thinking about it” and wanted her “supporters to understand” that “family comes first in my life, and I just don’t want to adversely affect the family.”

“At the same time, I want to be very fair to supporters and not keep them hanging on in perpetuity,” Palin said.

Palin also added that “it’s fair to them to give them an answer here, in short order, so that they can jump on board with someone else” if she decides not to run.

There are many reasons Palin could be undecided.

Possibly because of family. Though her husband, Todd, has repeatedly said the family has “been tested,” and her other family members seem to be on board with the idea of her running, Palin became a grandmother again last week, so any last-minute objection on behalf of her family may give her pause about subjecting them to the rigors and scrutiny of a campaign.

Palin could also be “strategically” undecided. In other words, Palin knows that in a cycle in which information travels faster than in even the average news cycle, now more fragmented and compressed than ever, she has to pick the perfect time to enter the race in order to minimize her chances of fizzling out. In addition, entering the race at a later date would give her the advantage of seeing her potential opponents possibly wounded and damaged even as they pick up support.

On the flip side, as her detractors in the mainstream media, on the Left and in much of the GOP have said, Palin could also be strategically undecided about seeking attention. Because she does not have an organization of paid staffers and professional fund-raisers, she is not taken very seriously by much of the chattering class. Yet because she trusts that the suspense surrounding her decision will keep her relevant, critics feel, Palin is purposely drawing out her inevitable decision not to run just to remain relevant.

But perhaps Palin is undecided for a reason more in tune with her character. Does she want to effectively lead the Tea Party?

The anti-establishment energy is there, as was shown by Donald Trump’s meteoric rise in the polls, Herman Cain’s positive intensity scores, Michele Bachmann’s straw poll win and Ron Paul’s fervent followers. And while the Tea Party has prided itself on being a leaderless movement, this election cycle may be one in which that movement needs a leader for its objectives—such as reducing the size and limiting the scope of government—to be accomplished in the legislative arena.

But Palin may be reluctant to become the Tea Party’s leader because, as Steve Bannon, who directed The Undefeated, said, the biggest surprise about making the movie was how Palin never spoke about her record of reform and accomplishments in Alaska. To Bannon, this was so because “her parents raised her not to brag.” Seen in this light, as Palin has said, she may decide that it would be better to endorse a candidate who fits the exacting standards she often lays out.

But what if the Tea Party activists want her to be its face? She has, after all, accepted an invitation to headline a Sept. 3 Tea Party event in Iowa. What if Palin thinks no candidate fits her description of the right person to take on Obama in the fall? Or what if Palin, as her detractors have said, wants to remain in the spotlight, but sees that her core base of supporters would never forgive her, like lovers played or scorned, if she chooses not to run?

In the end, if Palin wants to be President, as her supporters believe, or just desperately desires to remain a celebrity, as her detractors allege, she may have no choice but to run in 2012.

For now, though, she remains the great undecided.